我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析

为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程，在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上，分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征，包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用，得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关；雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的，同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同，雷击死亡人数在农田最多，而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全，其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。

Analysis of Lightning Disasters in China and Their Correlative Factors

In order to obtain a better reveal of the spatial and temporal distribution and formation mechanism of lightning disasters in China, this paper establishes a national lightning disaster database and gives statistic analysis of lightning disaster data from 1997 to 2006, in combination with the analysis of satellite based Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor lightning detecting data from 1995 to 2005 over China. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are studied, including lightning exposure, hazard formative environment, hazard, hazard affected bodies and their interactions. The results are as follows. (1) The frequency of lightning disasters and lightning related casualties correlate with hazard (lightning activities) and hazard affected bodies (population and economic development) in different areas of China. Taking area into consideration, lightning casualties correlate with lightning density, population density and the average GDP, but in negative correlation with rural population proportion and area. Various types of lightning exposure are closely related to various types of hazard affected bodies (proportion of urban population to rural population and economic development). Casualties from lightning disasters rate higher where rural population proportion is higher, while cities mainly suffer property loss from lightning disasters. (2) The annual and diurnal variations in the lightning casualties and the lightning damage correlate significantly with that of the lightning rate. Compared with lightning damages, lightning casualties are affected by people's life routines and habits. (3) Different hazard formative environment causes different ways of lightning casualties and damages. The most proportion lightning fatalities occur on farmland, while the most proportion lightning injuries occur in buildings. (4) 80% of lightning casualties incidents only involve one or two victim, while 61% of the cases involve one victim and 19% involve two victims. Lightning disasters with one death account for 83% of all lightning disasters involving death, while lightning disasters with two death accounts for 12%. (5) Major lightning casualties are directly related to vulnerability of hazard affected bodies. 54% of major lightning casualties happen in rural buildings and constructions, in most of which lightning protection appliances are not installed. 21% happen in sites with danger of explosion and fire, while 13% and 8% happen in classrooms and tourist sites respectively.