重大地质灾害应急响应技术支撑体系研究

地质灾害应急响应是一种涉及因素多、技术含量高、时间要求紧、工作任务重和社会影响大的危机事件管理行为,也是一种跨阶段、高要求、大集成、快反应和求实效的非常规防灾减灾行动。针对重大地质灾害的应急响应,为了探索减小地质风险和在风险下生存的途径,必须创建一个有灾害意识、有充分准备的政府或社区应急管理技术支撑体系。技术体系包括人才团队、技术装备、理论方法等方面。人才团队要求科学技术素养深厚,工作高效实用;技术装备要求简单、快速并有效;理论方法追求支撑防灾减灾决策的"满意解"或"有用解"。技术支撑具体针对地质灾害"险情应急"和"灾情应急"2种类型,前者突出预测预警与应急处置的防灾方法,后者重在成因分析与减灾行动。工作程序上划分为响应启动、调查评价、监测预警、会商定性、防控论证、决策指挥、实施检验和总结完善8个阶段。技术路线包括地质环境信息获取、分析研判、预测预警、模拟仿真、技术方案论证、风险评估与决策支持6个步骤。为了促进地质灾害应急响应从经验走向科学,从感性判断走向理性量化,尽快提升和加强对重大地质灾害应急管理的技术支撑能力,立足于国家层面的决策需求初步提出了重大地质灾害应急响应的科学技术工作框架体系。

Technical support system of emergency response for serious geo-hazards

Emergency response for geo-hazards is a crisis event management behavior which involves many factors, including high technical requirement, urgent time, heavy tasks and huge social impact. Also, it is an unconventional crisis prevention and mitigation action which is of multiple steps, strict requirement, great integration, rapid reaction and actual effect. Aiming at emergency response for geo-hazards, it is necessary to build a technical support system of crisis management at government or community level with disaster awareness and sufficient preparation, so as to find a path to reduce geo-hazards and get prepared with risks. Technical system consists of professional groups, technical devices and scientific methods, etc. The professionals should have solid scientific background and high working efficiency. The outfit should be simple, rapid-to-use and available. The theoretical methods should be working as "satisfying solution" or "useful solution" for decision-making. Technical support types for geo-hazards mitigation include "dangerous incident" and "disastrous incident" in which the former is at early warning and emergency control, the later is at genesis analysis and disaster mitigation. The working procedure of incident management can be divided into eight stages, including response starting, investigation and assessment, monitoring and early-warning, discussing and determining, preventing and control argumentation, decision-making and conducting, implement and checkout, and summarizing. Technical courses consist of six steps, namely geological information acquisition, analysis and estimation, forecast and early-warning, analog simulation, project argumentation, risk assessment and decision-making support. The authors put forward a technical framework for emergency response of geo-hazards on basis of the need of national level. It is helpful to upgrade the technical supporting capacity for crisis management, and swift emergency responding from experience to science, from perceptual judgment to rational quantization.