四川汶川Ms 8 级地震重灾区地质灾害危险性评价和预测

在地质灾害调查和遥感解译资料的基础上，采用专家评判方法，利用GIS技术对重灾区14个县市的地质灾害进行快速定量的危险性评价，并在此基础上进行定性评价。强烈的地震诱发大量的次生地质灾害,主要为滑坡和崩塌，其次为地裂缝、泥石流和地面塌陷，局部有沙土液化，主要分布在龙门山断裂带附近及山区。总结了14个县市重灾区内地质灾害的分布特征，分析了地质灾害的形成条件，建立了地质灾害评价指标体系，确定了地质灾害危险性判别标准，进行了地质灾害危险区划。共划分为高危险区、中危险区、低危险区3个等级，在此基础上又划分了若干个亚区。对地质灾害的可能发生区带进行了分析预测，针对高危险区提出了相应的防治对策。

Assessment of geohazard in severely damaged region by Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake, Sichuan Province, China

Based on investigation of geo-hazard and remote image interpretation of 14 counties within severely damaged region by Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake, speedy quantitative assessment of hazards fatalness was carried out using GIS technology by means of expert experience method. Qualitative assessment is therefore conducted on this basis. This strong earthquake has induced many geo-hazard, mainly landslide and collapse, secondly debris-flow, geo-fracture and surface collapse, and locally sandy soil liquidation. These hazards mostly distribute around Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities. This article has summed up the distribution characters, analyzed the forming conditions of geo-hazard in research region. It has also set up the assessment system, and has accomplished the fatalness zoning. The research region is thus divided into high dangerous region, medium dangerous region, and low dangerous region, then some regions are sub-divided into few sub-regions. Moreover, this paper has provided some disaster prevention and mitigation measures for highly dangerous geo-hazard region.