From back-analysis to run-out prediction: a case study in the Western Italian Alps

Rock avalanches are complex phenomena that occur with a low frequency but which have a high destructive potential. As a consequence, the people who are responsible for the management of a territory are more and more interested in predicting the possible evolutions of well-known potential events. Tackling the above problems from a quantitative point of view, the RASH3D code, based on continuum mechanics concepts, has been here used to predict the evolution of a potential rock avalanche in the Western Italian Alps. A calibration-based approach, in which rheological parameters are constrained by systematic adjustment during trial-and-error back-analysis of past events similar to the landslide under investigation, is proposed to set rheological parameter values to be used for prediction purposes. The back-analysis of a 2?10⁶ m³ rock avalanche located in the Divedro Valley, close to the area of the potential event, has then been analysed using both a frictional and a Voellmy rheology. The characteristics of the slope and the dynamics of the event have made the frictional rheology more suitable to come to the correct simulation of the historical case. The back-analysis results have contributed not only in the selection of the rheological parameter values but also in the choice of the type of rheological law to use in the carried out forward-analyses.