冰川变化及其影响的公众感知与适应措施分析——以甘肃河西内陆河流域为例

以河西地区三大内陆河流域(石羊河、黑河、疏勒河)为案例研究区, 通过社会调查方式, 从总体、再分别通过农户与政府部门人员两个部分, 分析了公众对冰川变化及其可能影响的感知, 剖析了公众感知的流域差异性与原因, 对比分析了三大河流域公众对政府部门已实施应对水资源紧缺对策措施的效果与认可程度. 结果表明:超过65%的受访者认为冰川减少了, 从社会学的角度佐证了冰川明显消融萎缩的科学监测事实. 三大河流域公众对冰川变化对流域水资源、农业生产、生态影响的感知存在空间差异性, 这种差异性归因于三大河流域的地理位置、冰川分布与变化的空间差异性. 在冰川变化背景下, 公众对政府部门已实施应对水资源紧缺的对策措施的效果与接受程度不同. 三大河流域公众均认可种植业结构调整与加大宣传力度提高公众节水意识这两项措施, 且认为实施效果好; 发展设施农业措施的实施效果好, 已得到石羊河和疏勒河流域老百姓的认可与接受; 石羊河和黑河流域的公众认为实施推广节水技术措施的效果好; 退耕还林还草措施在黑河流域实施普遍且效果好; 水票制措施在疏勒河流域实施的最好, 黑河一般, 疏勒河较差.

Public perception and selections of adaptation measures against glacier change and its impacts:Taking the Hexi inland river basin as an example

Three sub-basins (Shiyanghe, Heihe and Shulehe River basins) of the Hexi inland river basin were chosen as study areas in this paper. The public perceptions on glacier changes and its possible influences were analyzed through the ways of questionnaire survey and face-to-face interviews from two aspects, farmers and governmental officials. The discrepancies and reasons of the public perceptions among the three basins were also revealed. The implementing effect and the degree of recognition of the public on adaptive measures against water resources shortage, which are implemented by local government, are analyzed comparatively. The results show that more than 65% of respondents believe that the local glaciers are apparently shrinking. The scientific view of glacier shrinkage is now evidenced in the view of sociology. Spatial differences of the public perceptions on the water resources, agricultural production and ecological impact are found in the three basins, which were attributed to geographical location, glacial distribution and spatial heterogeneity of glacier change. There are differences among the public perceptions on the implementing effects and recognition degree of some countermeasures in the three basins. Cropping structure adjustment and water-saving measures are considered feasible and good in the three basins. The facility agriculture measure has been accepted by the public in the Shiyanghe River and Shulehe River basins. Farmers have considered that water-saving technology is good for them in the Shiyanghe River and Heihe River basins. The grain for green is implementing universally and has a positive effect. The implementation effect of water-ticket system is considered best in the Shulehe River basin, followed by the Heihe River basin.