玉龙雪山冰川变化对ENSO事件的响应

应用独立性检验方法就ENSO事件对我国云南丽江地区降水、温度和冰川变化影响进行了相关分析. 结果表明丽江降水与ENSO事件有密切关系, MEI值为负时下一年降水量增加, MEI正值与下一年降水量减少相对应. 丽江气温与ENSO事件关系显著, MEI值为负时下一年气温降低, MEI正值与下一年气温增加对应. 利用夏季降水量和气温设计了冰川积累量指数并与MEI进行对比分析, 发现当年MEI值与下一年的冰川积累指数存在一定相关关系, 并影响未来的冰川的变化, MEI为正时冰川将会退缩, MEI值为负时冰川将会前进.

Variation of Glaciers in Response to ENSO in the Mount Yulong

A correlation research between ENSO and its influence on the variation of precipitation, temperature and glacier in Lijiang Prefecture, Yunnan Province, is carried out by means of independence verification. It is found that there is a close correlation between ENSO and precipitation in the prefecture. While the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is negative, precipitation will increase in the next year; when the MEI is positive, precipitation will reduce. There is a significant correlation between ENSO and temperature in the prefecture. In case that the MEI is negative, temperature will fall in the next year; when the MEI is positive, temperature will rise. A glacier accumulation index is designed using summer precipitation and temperature, and the correlation between ENSO and the index is analyzed. Some correlation between the MEI and the index of the next year is discovered, and the MEI change will affect glacier change. If the MEI is negative, glacier will advance; if the MEI is positive, glacier will retreat.