山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析

气候变化对水资源的影响是水文领域的一个重要的研究方向, 研究水位变化与气候要素的相关分析, 对预测湖面水位意义重大. 利用1981-2013年山东西南部南四湖水位和沿湖5个国家级气象观测站逐月平均气温、 相对湿度、 风速、 降水和蒸发量等资料, 分析了近33 a来南四湖水位变化特征及气象影响因子. 结果表明: 近33 a南四湖水位升高趋势显著, 平均每10 a升高0.46 m; 水位变化整体分两个阶段, 1989年以前为下降态势, 1989年以后为上升态势, 1994年是水位升高的突变时间点; 平均最高水位出现在3月为33.04 m, 最低出现在12月为32.03 m. 各气象要素对南四湖水位的影响呈明显的季节性, 降水量是影响年水位变化的重要气象因子, 年降水量每增加100 mm, 水位升高0.21 m, 夏季降水量对水位的影响更为显著; 蒸发量在夏、 秋季与水位呈极显著负相关; 水位在夏季与风速、 在冬季与相对湿度均呈显著负相关.

The analysis of the levels characteristics in Lake Nansi in the Shandong Province and its related variation of meteorological elements from 1981 to 2013

The impact of climate change on water resources is an important item of research in hydrological field. The correlation analysis between water level and climate factors has an important significance to predict the lake level. In this paper, using the data of monthly average air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, evaporation and so on from five meteorological stations along the Nansi Lake, together with water level data, from 1981 to 2013, the changing characteristics of the Nansi Lake and climate factors during the 33 years were analyze by statistical methods of climatic trend rate, abrupt change test, nine point two times smoothing, stepwise regression and so on. The result proves that the water level of the lake had risen obviously in the 33 years, with the average rate of 0.46 m per 10 years. The variation in water level can be divided into two stages: a going down stage before 1989, followed by a going up stage; an abrupt change was found in 1994. The average highest level (33.04 m) appeared in March, and the lowest level (32.03 m) appeared in December. The climate factors, especially precipitation, had distinctly seasonally impacted on the water level. Precipitation had impacted obviously in summer; when annual precipitation rose 100 mm, water level would rise 0.21 m. Evaporation in summer and autumn significantly negatively correlated with water level, so did wind speed in summer and relative humidity in winter.