黑龙江省气温演变及未来趋势分析

利用1961-2015年的年平均及月平均气象资料，对黑龙江省全年、暖季与冷季平均气温进行分析，发现冷期和暖期持续时间相近，周期内的冷期和暖期平均气温相差较大。全年和冷季气温冷、暖期转换年份分别为1964年（暖转冷）、1988年（冷转暖）、2009年（暖转冷）；暖季气温转换年份分别为1969年（暖转冷）、1996年（冷转暖）、2015年前后（暖转冷）。利用模式方法和统计方法分别对2016-2030年黑龙江省气温变化趋势进行探讨，发现未来暖季和冷季气温上升幅度均变缓或者停滞，可能进入相对冷期。

An analysis of air temperature evolution and its future trend in Heilongjiang Province

Using the annual mean and monthly mean air temperature data from 1961 to 2015 in Heilongjiang Province, a study was conducted on mean air temperature of the whole year, cold and warm seasons. The results showed that the interannual variation of air temperature in cold season had changed more and that in warm season had changed less. It is consistent with most other parts of China, that is, a relative colder period and a warmer period that lasted approximately 20-30 years in Heilongjiang Province under the background of unanimous warming trend in last century, while the criteria of colder and warmer periods were defined as follows:in a cycle of cold-warm, a warmer (colder) period is the continuous year that the average anomaly > 0℃ (< 0℃). If there is a reverse anomaly in a colder or warmer period, the lasting time should be ≤ 2 years. It is notable that if there is a climate trend of positive (negative) anomaly ≥ 4 years, even anomaly is negative (positive), it must be defined as a warmer (colder) period. As for the beginning and ending years of the warmer and colder period, they must depend on the climate trend, or it is a stable turning year that anomaly >3 years. In the light of the criteria here above, the mutation years of periods was:1964 from warmer to colder, 1988 from colder to warmer, 2009 from warmer to colder for cold season and the whole year. While 1969 from warmer to colder, 1996 from colder to warmer and around 2015 from warmer to colder. In the periods of warmer and colder, the interannual variations are relatively small and the climate trends in colder periods are higher than those in warmer periods. There are slight differences between the beginning and ending times for warmer and colder periods, and those of warmer period lag behind of those of colder period about 6 years. Interannual variation of air temperature is more in cold season than that in warm season. It is showed that a cold season entered colder period in 2009 and a warm season entered (or turning into) colder period around 2015. By using the LMDZ4 model and periodic statistics, the warm (cold) season air temperature was projected and discussed during 2016-2030 in Heilongjiang Province. Though the results of the two methods are not completely consistent, it is shown that the phenomenon of warming may be slowed down or even stagnated, a relatively colder period more likely be found in Heilongjiang Province.