基于概率分布法的典型内陆河流域径流未来变化

基于黑河干流历史时期（1960 - 2012年）和RCPs（本文RCPs指RCP2.6、 RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景）情景下预估的未来（2013 - 2100年）月平均流量和冰川融水数据， 运用概率分布法和河道来水量距平法， 分析了黑河干流出山径流量与冰川融水径流量及其极值的未来变化趋势与程度、 径流丰枯变化以及冰川融水径流对黑河出山径流的补给与调节作用的变化。结果表明， 相较历史时期， 不同RCPs情景下未来黑河干流出山径流量将略呈增加态势， 但不显著； 月最大（7 - 8月）出山径流量将大幅度减少， 不确定性降低， 月最小（12月 - 翌年1月）出山径流量变化不明显。未来黑河干流， 不同RCPs情景下枯水年的发生概率将增加2～3倍， 偏枯水年在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下的发生概率亦将增大； 黑河干流未来可能进入平水年， 甚至枯水年。未来黑河干流年冰川融水径流与月最大冰川融水径流均显著减少， 对黑河径流的补给与调节作用均降低。

Estimating runoff variation in the future in a typical inland river based on the probability distribution method

The future （2013 - 2100） monthly mean runoff and glacial melt water from the mountainous area of the Heihe River are estimated based the data in historical periods （1960 - 2012） and forecasted in represented concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios （RCP2.6， RCP4.5 and RCP8.5）， using the probability distribution method and the river water flow anomaly method. The results show that compared with the historical period， the future runoff from the mountainous area of the river will increase slightly in different scenarios， but it is not significant. The maximum monthly （July to August） mountain runoff will be greatly reduced， the uncertainty will be reduced too， as well as the monthly minimum mountain runoff （December to January of the next year）； the change in runoff in the mountain areas will be not obvious； in the future， the occurrence probability of dry years in mountainous areas under different RCPs scenarios will increase by 2 to 3 times， and the probability of occurrence of dry years in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will also increase； the Heihe mainstream will enter median water year， even more dry. In the future， the glacial melt water runoff and the monthly maximum glacial melt water runoff of the river will significantly reduce， so do the ability of supply and regulation of the Heihe River runoff.