基于CMIP6气候模式的新疆积雪深度时空格局研究

积雪深度的变化对地表水热平衡起着至关重要的作用。选用了国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）中目前情景比较齐全的五个全球气候模式，通过对比新疆地区1979—2014年积雪深度长时间序列数据集，评估了气候模式在新疆地区模拟积雪深度的模拟能力，接着预估了未来不同SSPs-RCPs情景下新疆地区在2021—2040年（近期）、2041—2060年（中期）、2081—2100年（末期）相对于基准期（1995—2014年）的积雪深度变化。气温和降水对积雪深度变化有着重要的影响，因此还分析了新疆地区到21世纪末期气温和降水的变化趋势。结果表明：订正后的气候模式模拟的积雪深度数据与观测数据的相关系数均达到0.8以上，其中1月至3月与观测数据的结果更为吻合。气候模式基本上能够反映积雪深度年内变化的基本特征，气候模式模拟的积雪深度空间分布和观测数据具有相似的特征。气温和降水在未来不同情景下均会波动上升，其中气温的增幅相对比较明显，达0.43 ℃·（10a）^-1，而降水的增幅为0.63 mm·（10a）^-1，新疆未来的气候总体上呈现出变暖变湿的趋势。新疆地区的平均积雪深度在未来不同时期相对基准期均呈增加的趋势。SSP1-1.9情景下，21世纪近期、中期和末期北部大部分地区的积雪深度将会有所增加；SSP1-2.6情景下，北部阿尔泰山地区的积雪深度在21世纪近期有所减小，但中期和末期将会有所增加；SSP2-4.5情景下，21世纪不同时期东部地区的积雪深度将会有所增加，北部和中部大部分地区在不同时期积雪深度将会变小；SSP3-7.0情景下，21世纪不同时期北部和西南地区的积雪深度将会普遍变小，东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加；SSP4-3.4和SSP4-6.0情景下，21世纪不同时期西南昆仑山地区的积雪深度将会普遍变小，东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加；SSP5-8.5情景下，北部阿尔泰山地区和东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加。

Spatial and temporal patterns of snow depth in Xinjiang:insight from CMIP6 climate models

The change of snow depth plays an important role in the surface water heat balance. Five global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP6） with relatively complete scenarios are selected to evaluate the simulation ability of the climate model in simulating the snow depth in Xinjiang by comparing the long time series data sets of the snow depth in Xinjiang from 1979 to 2014. The change of snow depth in Xinjiang during 2021—2040 （recent period）， 2041—2060 （middle period）， and 2081—2100 （late period） relative to the base period （1995—2014） under different SSPs-RCPs scenarios in the future is also estimated. Temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the change of snow depth， so the change trend of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang to the end of the 21st century is also analyzed. The results show that： （1） The correlation coefficients between the snow depth data simulated by the revised climate model and the observed data are all above 0.8， and the results from January to March are more consistent with the observed data. The climate model can basically reflect the basic characteristics of annual variation of snow depth. The spatial distribution of snow depth simulated by the climate model has similar characteristics with the observed data. （2） Temperature and precipitation will rising volatility under different scenarios in the future， the increase of temperature is relatively obvious， reaching 0.43 ℃·（10a）^-1， while the increase of precipitation is 0.63 mm·（10a）^-1. （3） In general， the climate of Xinjiang in the future will show a warming and wetting trend. The average snow depth in Xinjiang will increase in different periods in the future. Under SSP1-1.9 scenario， snow depth will increase in most northern regions in the near， middle and late 21st century. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario， the snow depth in the northern Altai Mountains will decrease in the recent century， but will increase in the middle and end of the 21st century. Under SSP2-4.5 scenario， the snow depth in eastern China will increase in different periods in the 21st century， while the snow depth in most of northern and central China will decrease in different periods. Under SSP3-7.0 scenario， the snow depth in north and southwest China will generally decrease， while the snow depth in eastern China will generally increase in different periods in the 21st century. Under the SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0 scenarios， the snow depth in southwest Kunlun Mountains will generally decrease in different periods in the 21st century， while the snow depth in eastern Kunlun Mountains will generally increase. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario， the snow depth will generally increase in the northern Altai Mountains and eastern regions.