1468-2001年新疆精河5～8月平均气温的重建

精河流域上游的3个树轮年表与精河5～8月的平均气温相关显著.考虑到气温对树木年轮生长的滞后效应,重建了精河1468—2001年的5～8月的平均气温,方差解释量为62.2%.在1468—2001年的534 a中精河共经历了7个偏暖和7个偏冷期,在不同阶段气温的变化周期不一致,气温在1541年、1684年、1855年和1969年前后出现突变.

Reconstruction of Temperature Series from A.D. 1468-2001 in the Jinghe,Xinjiang

Three Tree-ring chronologies are obtained by using the ARSTAN program based on conifer samples(%Picea Schrenkiana %Var% Tiansclhanica%) collected from Tianshan Mountains.Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations are significant among the three tree-ring chronologies and temperature from May to August at Jinghe in Tianshan Mountains,the greatest single correlation coefficient is 0.511(significant is much greater than the 99.9 percent level).The result has distinct physiological significance.Considering the hysteresis of tree growth to temperature,an average temperature series from May to August was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 62.62% by means of the tree-ring chronology series.It was verified that the reconstructed temperature was reliable by leave-one-out.Some results obtained by analyzing the 534 years reconstructed temperature series are as follows: 1) In the past 534 years,there were 296 normal years,which overwhelming proportion was 55.4%.And there were 32 extra-warmer years and 17 extra-colder years.Source experienced 7 warmer periods and 7 colder periods,3 colder periods among this periods accorded with that of Chinese Litter Ice Age and Tibetan Plateau.2)Significant change periods is dissimilar in different period,40 a periods accorded with that of the global temperature field.3) Occurrence of 4 abrupt changes in 1541,1684,1855,1969 was detected,and abrupt year of 1969 is also detected in the Guliya Ice Core.