基于交叉小波的天山乌鲁木齐河出山径流多尺度特征研究

运用连续小波对新疆天山北坡的乌鲁木齐河上游1958-2006年的月均气温(MMT)、月降水量(MP)和月均径流量(MMR)变化进行了多时间尺度特征分析. 结果表明：1960—2005年月均气温、月降水量和月均径流量三者始终存在着12个月左右尺度的主周期，并呈现出全局性特征，信号的强弱依次为MMT、MP 和MMR；同时，MMT存在66个月和96个月的次周期，MP存在6个月、30个月和72个月的次周期，MMR亦存在6个月、24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期. 在此基础上，对其进行交叉小波分析后发现，MMR与MMT、MP的相关程度除了表现为12个月的主周期和6个月的次周期外，MMT对MMR的影响还表现在34个月和72个月的次周期上，而MP对MMR的影响也表现在24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期上. MMT对MMR的影响除了12个月的主周期表现为正相关外，6个月的周期相位亦存在正负交错的现象，说明在该尺度上MMT对MMR的影响既有正面的也有负面的；MMT对MMR的影响在其他次周期上均表现为负相关或近似负相关；而MP对MMR的影响在主次周期上均表现为显著的正相关.

Multi-Time Scale Characteristics of the Runoff in the Upstream of Ürümqi River,Tianshan Mountains,Based on Cross-Wavelet Transformation

The wavelet analysis method is adopted to analyze the multi-time scale characteristics of monthly mean air temperature (MMT), monthly precipitation (MP) and monthly mean runoff (MMR) in the upstream of the Ürümq River from 1958 to 2006. The results show that there are significant primary periods with 12-month scale of MMT, MP and MMR from 1958 to 2006, and the order of oscillation signals is MMT> MMR > MP. Furthermore, there are 66-month and 96-month secondary periods for MMT, 6-month, 30-month and 72-month secondary periods for MP, and 6-month, 24-month, 36-month and 72-month secondary periods for MMR. Moreover, cross-wavelet transformation shows that the correlations between MMR and MMT, MMR and MP are not only reflected in 12-month primary periods and 6-month secondary periods, but also in 34-month and 72-month secondary periods between MMR and MMT, and 24-month, 36-month and 72-month secondary periods between MMR and MP. It is found that there are positive correlation at 12-month scale period between MMR and MMT, non-significant correlation at 6-month scale period between MMR and MMT, and negative correlation at other scale periods between MMR and MMT. However, all scale periods between MMR and MP are of significantly positive correlation.