| 近50a来塔里木河源流区区年径流量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 傅丽昕,陈亚宁,李卫红,徐长春,何斌.近50a来塔里木河源流区区年径流量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(3):457-463. |
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| 作者姓名： | 傅丽昕 陈亚宁 李卫红 徐长春 何斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 水利部,新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000;水利部,新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000;水利部,新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000;中国科学院,新疆生态与地理研究研究所,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011;中国科学院,新疆生态与地理研究研究所,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重要方向项目，国家自然科学基金项目，国家科技支撑项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对塔里木河源流区三条源流5个水文控制站1957-2003年近50 a的年均气温、降水及年径流资料,在进行Mann-Kenclall非参数统计检验的基础上,运用R/S法分析了5个水文控制站年径流量的Hurst指数,以统计特征估计未来径流量的变化趋势.结果显示:由于近年来温度的持续升高,阿克苏河的径流量有显著的增加趋势,并且其增长的持续性较强;和田河的径流量有微递减的趋势,但趋势并不显著,在未来的变化中,其随机性较强;叶尔羌河的径流量虽表现出增加的趋势,但趋势不显著,其径流量在未来的变化中将会是反持续性与随机性共存.
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| 关 键 词： | 塔里木河三源流 Hurst指数 非参数检验 年径流量 |
Analyses of the Durative and Tendency of Annual Runoff in the Headwaters of the Tarim River in the Recent 50 Years |
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| FU Li-Xin,CHEN Ya-ning,LI Wei-hong,XU Chang-chun,HE Bin.Analyses of the Durative and Tendency of Annual Runoff in the Headwaters of the Tarim River in the Recent 50 Years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009,31(3):457-463. |
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| Authors: | FU Li-Xin CHEN Ya-ning LI Wei-hong XU Chang-chun HE Bin |
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| Institution: | FU Li-Xin1,2,CHEN Ya-ning1,3,LI Wei-hong1,XU Chang-chun1,HE Bin1 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests on the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation and annual runoff from five hydrological stations in the headwaters of Tarim River from 1957 to 2003,Hurst indexes were analyzed by means of R/S method to analyze the statistical characteristics of durative and tendency of runoff.It is found that due to the increasing temperature in the basin,the annual runoff in the Aksu River had an obviously increasing tendency,and the persistence of the tendency was very ob... |
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| Keywords: | headwaters of Tarim River Hurst index nonparametric test annual runoff |
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