非线性时变增益模型在新疆喀什中小河流洪水模拟中的适用性研究

近年来受人类活动和气候变化影响,新疆喀什地区水文非线性特征凸显,使得传统考虑单一线性的模型精度不高,以新疆喀什地区中小流域为研究对象,应用非线性时变增益模型,结合该流域1999-2017年实测洪水数据分析该模型在新疆喀什地区中小河流洪水模拟的适用性。研究结果表明:采用新的模型洪水模拟精度可到乙级以上精度,明显好于传统模型。研究成果对于新疆喀什地区中小河流防洪预警具有重要参考价值。

Study on the applicability of nonlinear time-varying gain model in small river flood simulation of the river in Kashi,Xinjiang

In recent years, influenced by human activities and climate change, the hydrological nonlinear features of the Kashgar region in Xinjiang are prominent, which makes the traditional single-linear model less accurate. The small-scale watershed in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang is used as the research object, and the nonlinear time-varying gain model is applied. The applicability of the model in the flood simulation of small and medium rivers in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang was analyzed from the measured flood data from 1999 to 2017. The research results show that the accuracy of the new model flood simulation can reach the accuracy of Grade B or above, which is obviously better than the traditional model. The research results have important reference value for flood control early warning of medium and small rivers in Kashgar, Xinjiang.