基于层次分析法与频率比模型的采空塌陷危险性评价

采空塌陷危险性评价是编制地质灾害防治规划、开展地质灾害防治与监测预警工作的重要依据。本文采用层次分析法与频率比模型相结合构建了采空塌陷危险性评价模型（AHP-PF组合模型）。以沈阳市蒲河-清水矿区为例，考虑了地质条件、地表特征、开采条件等3方面影响因素，选取了第四纪覆盖类型、第四纪松散层厚度、地质构造复杂程度、可采煤层顶板强度指标、煤层倾角、地表沉陷速率、采深采厚比、采空区叠置层数等8个评价指标，利用AHP-PF组合模型计算各指标权重及频率比，最后进行采空塌陷危险性分区。评价结果表明，采空塌陷危险性高区主要集中在采深采厚比小、沉陷速率大及目前仍在开采的区域，该区域是地质灾害防治、搬迁避让的重点区域。

Risk assessment of goaf collapse based on analytic hierarchy process and frequency ratio model[

The risk assessment of goaf collapse provides important basis for the planning, monitoring and early warning of geological hazards. This work established a risk assessment AHP-PF model for goaf collapse with the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and frequency ratio model. Taking the Puhe-Qingshui mine in Shenyang as an example, this work selected eight evaluation indexes considering three factors of geological conditions, surface characteristics and mining conditions. These eight evaluation indexes are Quaternary coverage type, Quaternary loose layer thickness, geological structure complexity, roof strength index of recoverable coal seam, coal seam inclination angle, surface subsidence rate, ratio of mining depth to mining thickness, and number of overlaid layers in goaf. The combined AHP-PF model was used to calculate the weight and frequency ratio of each index, and the risk zoning of mining subsidence was performed. The evaluation suggests that high risk of ground collapse mainly occurred in the areas with small ratios of mining depth to mining thickness, large subsidence rate and the areas still being mined, which should be focused for geological disaster prevention and relocation avoidance.