中国铁矿资源勘查开发现状及供需形势分析

中国是世界钢铁生产和消费第一大国,如何摆脱由铁矿勘查投入持续下滑及铁矿石价格下行所带来的行业困境是近年来需高度关注的问题。本文通过对中国铁矿石的资源现状及供需格局进行综合分析,认为:(1)我国铁矿产量增速远低于我国钢铁需求的增速:以含铁量来计,2015年原矿产量相较于1998年仅增加了0.1倍,而粗钢表观需求量增加了4.5倍。(2)目前铁矿石的需求终端主要为建筑,近几年我国铁矿石消费量年增长率出现下降且有负增长,未来有可能会进一步放缓。(3) 2010年后铁矿石对外依存度持续攀升,最高达90%左右,进口量增速明显高于自产矿。由于铁矿石产能及产量的降速不及钢材,因此长期来看铁矿石价格或将继续下移。(4)未来中国铁矿石需求将会逐步下降,到2040年中国将需要8.56亿吨铁矿石,合理粗钢产能应为8.78～9.35亿吨。

Current exploration status and supply-demand situation of iron ore resources in China mainland

China is the largest producer and consumer of iron and steel in the world. It has been highly concerned that continuous investment shrinks in iron ore exploration and the decline trend of iron ore prices in recent years. To further address this issue, this paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the distribution, supplies and demands of China''s iron ore resources. It is clear that China''s iron ore output growth rate lagged far behind the growth rate of China''s steel demand. For instance, compared with 1998, the raw ore output in 2015 increased by only 0.06 times in terms of iron content while the apparent demand for crude steel increased by 4.6 times. The major terminal need of iron ore comes primarily from construction at present. In recent years, the growth rate of iron ore consumption in China has declined or even a negative growth and a possible further slowdown in the future can be expected. Since 2010 China''s dependence on import of iron ore has continued to climb up, with a peak of around 90%, and the growth rate of import of iron ore significantly outpaced that of iron ore produced by domestic mines. As the declining rate of iron ore production capacity and volume is slower than that of steel, the price of iron ore is expected to continue to keep a downward trend in the long run. China''s iron ore demand will gradually decline in the future. It is predicted that by 2040 China will need 856 million tons of iron ore while the reasonable production capacity of crude steel capacity may reach 8.78~9.35 million tons per year.