坡面泥石流活动与降水之间的关系初探——以重庆北碚地区为例

文章从坡面泥石流的形成条件入手，结合重庆北碚地区地质地貌和气象条件，分析了该地区从1962-2003年发生的坡面泥石流的数据及降雨资料，认为在该区域，降水是诱发坡面泥石流的决定性因素。通过对具体坡面泥石流事例的分析，认为坡面泥石流的发生与前期降雨量和短历时雨强关系密切，前期降雨量对泥石流形成的贡献比较大，短历时雨强主要起到激发作用，当短历时雨强指数〉550时，应发出泥石流危险警报。最后利用发生坡面泥石流前3日累计降雨量和当日前期降雨量，得出了该区域降水诱发坡面泥石流的临界雨量方程。

A Preliminary study of the relationship between debris flow on slope and precipitation——A case study in Beibei, Chongqing

This paper begins with the formation conditions of debris flow on slope and examines the geologic, geographical and climate conditions in Beipei, Chongqing. The data of debris flows on slope from 1962 to 2003 and the precipitation data from 1962 to 2003 were analyzed. The results indicate that precipitation is a critical factor which caused the occurrence of debris flows on slope. By examining the concrete cases of debris flows on slope, the authors come to the conclusion that antecedent precipitation of that day and rain intensity have a close relation with the occurrence of debris flows on slope. When the short-time intensity is greater than 550, the weather bureau should send out the alert of debris flow. By using the antecedent precipitation on that day and 3-day antecedent precipitation, the formula of the critical precipitation can be obtained.