| 降雨诱发区域性滑坡预报预警方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李媛,杨旭东.降雨诱发区域性滑坡预报预警方法研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2006,33(2):101-103,107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李媛 杨旭东 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 论文以四川省雅安市雨城区为研究区，将逻辑回归模型引入区域降雨型滑坡预警预报，建立了同时考虑降雨强度和降雨过程的降雨临界值表达式。在滑坡危险性区划的基础上，研究提出了区域降雨型滑坡预警预报指标，包括临界值降雨指数R和滑坡发生指数L，并利用20台自动遥测雨量计和地质灾害群测群防网络，采用历史记录雨量和预报雨量，建立了区域降雨型滑坡预报预警体系。
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨型滑坡 预报预警 逻辑回归 临界值 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3665（2006）02-0101-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-182006-02-20 |
Research on the forecasting and early warning of the regional precipitation-induced landslide |
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| LI Yuan,YANG Xu-doug.Research on the forecasting and early warning of the regional precipitation-induced landslide[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2006,33(2):101-103,107. |
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| Authors: | LI Yuan YANG Xu-doug |
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| Institution: | China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Yucheng District of Ya'an City,Sichuan province,was chosen as the research area in the paper.Logic regression model was applied into the precipitation-induced landslide early warning and forecast.The expression of rainfall threshold considering both the rainfall intensity and rainfall process was established.Based on the research on the landslide risk zoning and landslide rainfall threshold,the research proposes the regional precipitation-induced landslide early warning and forecast index,including the threshold rainfall index R and landslide occurrence index L.Twenty automatic telemetering rain gauges combining local people monitoring were used to establish the precipitation-induced landslide forecast and early warning system based on the historical rainfall precipitation and forecasted rainfall precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation- induced landslide forecast and early warning logic regression threshold |
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