宁夏降水型地质灾害气象条件等级预警系统

利用1982-2004年宁夏地质灾害与降水资料，在分析引发宁夏干旱区主要地质灾害的气象条件基础上，采用统计学方法分区建模，建立了宁夏降水型地质灾害潜势预报模型。依据该模型，在可视化高级编程语言DELPHl环境下，研究开发了一套自动化程度较高的降水型地质灾害气象条件等级预警系统；该系统可以通过网络，以协调一致的工作平台，将气象与地质等相关部门有机连接，实现了联合开展地质灾害预报及指导订正的业务流程。根据实时的雨情及降雨预报，依据所建的分区预报模型，对宁夏地质灾害的发生概率进行快速评价，实现对灾害发生的空间范围、强度及其分布概率的自动实时预警预报；通过人机交互订正，提供位图和GEOS（文本）2种格式的概率预报结论，同时实现了预报预警服务材料的自动化输出。2004，2005年的业务试运行表明，该预警系统基本能满足业务的需求，为新业务领域的拓展提供了技术支持。

A Operational System on Weather Level Forecast and Alert of Geologic Disasters on Rainfall Pattern in Ningxia

The prediction model of geologic disaster is established by using the data of geologic disasters and precipitation from 1982 to 2004 in Ningxia, and statistical methods, based on the analysis of main geologic disasters. A more automatic operational system on weather level forecast and alert of geologic disasters is developed using DELPHI according to the model. This system connects the meteorologic and geologic departments to work together through the network and realize and technical flow of predicting and adjusting geological disasters in collaboration. The occurrene probability of geological disasters can thus be rapidly evaluated by the forcasting model. The automatic predication alert of the space, intensity and distribution of geologic disasters, can then be made possible based on regional forecasting model, realtime precipitation forcast and observed precipitation data in the flood season. Two kinds of forecasting format of bitmap and text are provided, according to man-machine interaction, while the forecasting documents are outputed automatically. The system has proved available after it is put into practice of operation in flood season in 2004 and 2005, and new businesses are developed.