福建省地质灾害气象预警有效降雨模型研究

降雨是诱发地质灾害最主要的外部因素之一，在中国东南沿海中低山丘陵区强降雨诱发的地质灾害集群发生，造成了大量人员伤亡和财产损失。以福建省为例，深入挖掘多年历史地质灾害案例的降雨实况资料，以县级行政区为统计单元，基于定量化降雨估测对诱发群发性地质灾害的典型降雨过程进行相关性研究，并基于地质环境的量化指标进行了偏相关分析验证，建立了福建省有效降雨模型并通过现场监测和预警应用进行了验证。研究表明：福建地区地质灾害的发生与灾害发生3日内降雨相关，且以0.79为折减系数逐日折减，据此建立了福建地区有效降雨模型；将福建地区有效降雨模型应用于地质灾害气象预警，可以在保证地质灾害命中率的前提下，减少预警区面积、降低预警等级、缩短预警持续时间，提高地质灾害气象预警的精准性。研究结果有助于准确把握降雨特征，可为区域地质灾害气象预警中降雨因子的合理评估提供科学依据。

Research on an effective rainfall model for geological disaster early warning in Fujian Province,China

Rainfall is one of the most important external factors inducing geological disasters, especially prominent in China’s mountainous regions. Many group-occurring geological disasters induced by heavy rainfall occurred in southeast China’s middle and low mountainous regions, causing many casualties and property losses. Taking Fujian Province as an example, we carefully examined the actual rainfall data of historical geological disaster cases and conducted correlation studies on typical rainfall processes inducing group-occurring geological disasters based on quantitative rainfall estimation with county-level administrative districts as the statistical unit. We also carried out a partial correlation analysis based on quantitative indicators of the geological environment for verification. The result shows that the occurrence of geological disasters in Fujian correlates with adequate rainfall within three days, and it is reduced by a reduction coefficient of 0.79 daily. Based on that finding, we established an effective rainfall model for Fujian Province and verified it through field monitoring and early warning applications. Applying this rainfall model to geological disaster early warning in Fujian can reduce the warning area, lower the warning level, shorten the warning duration, and improve the accuracy of geological disaster early warning by maintaining the hit ratio. The results of the study can help to characterize the rainfall accurately and can provide a scientific basis for the reasonable assessment of rainfall factors in regional geological disaster early warning.