基于灰色系统理论的长江经济带地区地质灾害趋势预测研究

将灰色系统理论引入地质灾害的长期趋势预测中，以长江经济带地区的地质灾害发生趋势为例进行建模和预测，并对预测值的精度进行评价。研究结果表明，GM（1，1）模型可用于预测较大区域地质灾害发生的基本趋势，将灰色系统理论用于地质灾害趋势预测是可行的；预测结果显示未来5年长江经济带地区的年度地质灾害发生数量总体呈波动下降趋势，预计今后2年内可能会有重灾年出现。研究成果可为长江经济带地区的防灾减灾等相关工作提供参考。 

TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY

The grey system theory is introduced to the trend prediction research of geological hazard. Modeling and prediction are taken with the case study of the trend of geological hazards in the Yangtze Economic Zone, and the precision is analyzed finally. The result shows that model GM(1,1) can be used for trend prediction research of geological hazard and the gray system theory are useful. Based on the prediction we know that the annual number of geological hazards presents fluctuant descend tendency and serious disaster year maybe appear in the next 2 years. The results obtained may provide supportable information to the prevention and reduction department in the Yangtze Economic Zone.