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| 2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点与预报效果评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 李春红,王玉华,王建平,任立良.2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点与预报效果评价[J].水文,2011,31(1):31-34,80. |
| 作者姓名： | 李春红 王玉华 王建平 任立良 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 国网电力科学研究院,江苏,南京,210003 2. 三峡梯级调度通信中心,湖北,宜昌,443000 3. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏,南京,210098 |
| 摘 要： | 对2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点进行分析,并针对场次洪水和连续自动预报两种方式进行预报误差统计,两种方式预报结果都表明2008年实时联机水文预报精度达到水文情报预报规范的甲级标准,同时发现未来降雨对三峡水库入库预报精度影响较大,部分场次洪水结合(不结合)未来降雨的预报精度差别很大,且随着预见期增长,预报误差也加大。 |
| 关 键 词： | 三峡水库 洪水 实时联机水文预报 预见期 |
Inflow Flood Characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2008 and Forecast Assessment |
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| LI Chunhong,WANG Yuhua,WANG Jianping,REN Liliang.Inflow Flood Characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2008 and Forecast Assessment[J].Hydrology,2011,31(1):31-34,80. | |
| Authors: | LI Chunhong WANG Yuhua WANG Jianping REN Liliang |
| Institution: | LI Chunhong1,WANG Yuhua2,WANG Jianping1,REN Liliang3(1.State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210003,China,2.Three Gorges Cascade Dispatching and Communication Center,Yichang 443133,3.State Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Utilization and Project Safety,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
| Abstract: | Inflow flood characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2008 were analyzed,and the error statistics was made according to flood event analysis and continuous automatic forecast.The result shows that the accuracy of on-line hydrological forecasting has reached Grade A in China's Hydrological Information and Forecast Criterion.It also shows that the future rainfall has a strong impact on the forecast results.The accuracy of forecast with future rainfall considered is higher than that without considering... |
| Keywords: | Three Gorges reservoir flood on-line hydrological forecasting forecast lead time |
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