和田河流域近 60 年降水尧气温与径流演变特征研究

以新疆和田河流域为例，采取Mann-Kendall趋势检测法、Pettitt突变检测法与小波分析等方法剖析了研究区近60年气温、降雨和径流变动特点。结果显示：（1）研究区降水、气温和径流均有增加或升高趋势，其中气温变化呈显著增加;（2）研究区降水、气温、径流突变分别发生于1986年、1996年和1993年；（3）研究区降水、气温和径流均无显著性周期性变化，但存在短时间段周期变化,降水在研究时段内呈现丰枯交替变化，自20世纪90年代逐渐湿化。气温呈现逐渐升高的发展趋势。20世纪90年代以前，径流年代际变化以偏枯为主，近20年年代际变化以偏丰为主。

Study on the Evolution Characteristics of Main Hydrometeorological Factors and Runoff in Hetian River Basin in Recent 60 Years

Taking the Hetian River Basin in Xinjiang as an example,this paper adopts Mann-Kendall trend detection method,Pettitt mutation detection method and wavelet analysis to analyze and study the characteristics of temperature,rainfall and runoff changes in 60 years.The results show that:(1)the precipitation,temperature and runoff in the study area all have increased trend,of which the temperature change shows a significant increase;(2)the temperature has a sudden change in 1996,the precipitation has a sudden change in 1986,and the runoff occurred in 1993;(3)there is no significant periodic change in precipitation,temperature and runoff in the study area,but there are periodic changes in a short period of time;there is an alternating change between high and dry seasons,and gradually humidified since the 1990s.The temperature shows a trend of gradual increase.Before the 1990s,the interdecadal variation of runoff is mainly dry,and the interdecadal change in the past 20 years is mainly rich.