| 雷州半岛年降水量序列分析及预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹仁爱,陈俊鸿.雷州半岛年降水量序列分析及预测模型[J].水文,2006,26(1):55-59,33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹仁爱 陈俊鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039;中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广东,广州,510301;广州地理研究所,广东,广州,510070
2. 广州地理研究所,广东,广州,510070;广东省环境科学与技术公共实验室,广东,广州,510070 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省科技创新百项工程项目(99B07001G，2KB06901S)，湛江市988科技兴湛计划项目(117)资助项目，广东省农业科技攻关项目(2002A2040904)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用了雷州半岛徐闻气象站年降水量(1957～2002年)的时间序列资料,运用时间序列分析建模方法,对序列提取趋势项和周期项,并用自回归-滑动平均混合模型拟合剩余序列,然后再对年降水量序列进行预测。分析结果证明,建立的时间序列预测模型,具有较高的预报精度,其预测的结果可以用作雷州半岛旱情预报和防治的参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 雷州半岛 年降水量 ARMA模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852（2006）01-0055-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-09 |
Analysis of Annual Precipitation Time Series for Leizhou Peninsula and the Concerned Predicting Model |
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| ZOU Ren-ai,CHEN Jun-hong.Analysis of Annual Precipitation Time Series for Leizhou Peninsula and the Concerned Predicting Model[J].Hydrology,2006,26(1):55-59,33. |
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| Authors: | ZOU Ren-ai CHEN Jun-hong |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces a modeling method for analyzing and predicting non-stationary time series. The annual rainfall data are used as one of the most important observation factors that can reflect the dynamic change of drought. Thus, this paper gets the annual precipitation data of the Leizhou Peninsula from 1957 to 1996, and adopts a method of time series analyzing, which is building an auto-regression moving-average (ARMA) model after the trend terms and periodic terms are extracted and examined. And then the posterior results are forecasted by the model. The result shows that the annual precipitation has indistinctive trend and obvious periodical change. The model of predicting precipitation on Leizhou Peninsula has high degree of accuracy, the data predicted can be used in the dynamic drought analysis of Leizhou Peninsula. |
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| Keywords: | time series Leizhou Peninsula annual precipitation ARMA model |
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