水文变异的滑动F识别与检验方法

针对传统F检验法只能用于已知变异点的检验,而无法用于变异点的识别问题,本文提出了滑动F识别与检验法。该法首先利用传统F检验法对序列逐点进行检验,找出满足F计算值大于临界值的所有可能变异点,然后选择F计算值达到最大值的那一点作为最可能变异点。利用该法对潮白河水资源分区45年年径流量序列进行了分析,并从物理成因角度对该检验结果进行了确认。结果表明滑动F 识别与检验法具有较好的检验效果,检验结果可信度较高。

Slide F test of Change-Point Analysis

On account of the influence of human activities and climate change, the hydrologic series may change in time and space. Usually, the statistical method of F test is used to test change-point, but it can't be used to check out change-point. A slide F test of change-point analysis method is presented in this paper. Firstly, it test all of the points in the time series to get all possible change-points. Then, it chooses the point whose calculated F value is the maximum F as the probable change-point. The method has been used to analyze Chaobaihe River's 45 years annual runoff with the results from physical cause being confirmed, which shows that slide F test is better than traditional F test. It can be used to test and check out change-point. It is more effective in change-point analysis and the result is more reliable.