水位演算模型及其在水位预报中的应用

将单一河道洪水演算系统视为单输入一单输出系统，基于时间序列分析中的ＡＲＭＡＶ（２，１）模型，应用时间序列分析最优控制理论建立了水位演算模型和水位预报方法。证明若采用水位作变量，则可采用无约束的最优化方法确定参数；若采用水深作变量，则可采用以水量平衡为约束的寻优方法确定参数。本文所建立的水位预报方法用于黄河下游水位预报，得到了满意的预报精度。

The Stage Routing Model and Its Application in Stage Forecasting

Flood routing system is considered as a single input-output system in this paper.Stage routing model and stage forecasting method,based on ARMAV(2,1) model with time series analysis,is derived using the optimal control theory.The following conclusions can be given from this study:if stage is variable,stage routing parameters are then identified using optimal method without restraint condition;if water flow depth is variable ,the parameters are determined by the use of the optimal method under the water balance condition.The method has been applied to the stage prediction on the lower reaches of the Yellow River,the good results are obtained in both model calibration and verification.