广西河流预报新模式及关键技术研究与应用

随着全国中小河流水文监测工程项目的实施以及国家、广西水情预警发布管理办法的出台,在洪涝频繁、中小河流站点点多面广的新形势下,如何实现广西河流预报任务由传统的预报增加至预警、预报双重要求成为近年来工作中迫切要解决的问题。基于水量平衡原理及洪水水位涨率变化规律分析研究,根据“预测-预警-预报”河流预报模式,研究开发了适应此模式的河流预报方法和技术。2015年以来,此模式及方法技术广泛应用于广西河流预报中,实现大江大河、中小河流洪水科学预测预警预报,水文预报合格率均超过90%。同时有效延长洪水预见期,大江大河洪水预见期平均提前24h,中小河流洪水预见期平均提前5h。

Research and Application on New Hydrological Forecast Mode and Technology in Guangxi

Under the new situation with frequent flood and numerous hydrological stations built on small&medium-sized rivers,how to realize the transformation of work task from traditional forecast to early warning and forecast has become an urgent problem to be solved in the work of water regime.Based on the research of the principle of water balance and water level rise rate analysis method,according to the new working mode of hydrological“prediction-warning-forecast”,this paper carried out new methodology&technology for hydrological forecast in Guangxi.The mode has been used widely in the hydrological work of Guangxi since 2015.,The scientific prediction and forecast are realized in the flood processes of large rivers and medium&small rivers,and the qualification rates of hydrological forecast are exceeding 90 percent.Meanwhile,the early warning period has been averagely advanced by 24 hr in large rivers while by 5 hr in small and medium-sized rivers.