变化环境下水文资料序列的可靠性与一致性分析

由于气候变化和人类活动的双重影响,实测水文系列会发生一定程度变化,而水文资料的非一致性直接影响到水文模型参数的代表性,影响到水文模拟的精度和可靠性。选择黄河流域和淮河流域的两个典型支流,采用有序聚类法和Mann-Kendall检验法对其水文序列资料进行突变检测,结果表明,黄河流域黑石关站的水文序列在1969年以后发生了较大的变化,而淮河流域息县站的水文序列未发生明显变化,说明黑石关站水文系列自1969年以来受气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响比较大,在一定程度上破坏了该站水文序列的一致性。相比而言,息县站流域受气候变化和人类活动的影响比较小,水文序列的稳定性较好。

Consistency and Reliability Analysis of Hydrological Sequence in Environment Change

Because of the double impact of climate change and human activities, the hydrological sequence changed, so that the inconsistency directly impacted the representativeness of the hydrological data and the hydrological model parameters and affected the hydrological modeling accuracy and reliability. This paper selected two typical watersheds in the Yellow River Basin and Huaihe River Basin respectively, using the cluster method and Mann-Kendall test method for the hydrological sequence burst detection. It is found that the hydrological sequence data of the Heishiguan Station in the Yellow River Basin changed greatly after 1969, but the hydrological sequence data of the Xixian Station in the Huaihe River Basin had no obvious change. This result indicates that the hydrological sequence of the Heishiguan Station was greatly affected by the climate change and human activities after 1969, and the consistency of the hydrological sequence was destroyed in some extent. In contrast, the Xixian Station was less affected by climate change and human activities, and the stability of the hydrological sequence is better.