气候变暖背景下祁连山七一冰川融水径流变化研究

本文利用2006年实测水文数据,找出冰川自动气象站气温与冰川融水径流量关系,并根据酒泉气象站与冰川末端气象站气温关系,重建1960～2004年七一冰川融水径流资料.近40多年来,酒泉站气温增加幅度为0.24℃/10a,冰川融水量增加幅度为0.076×106 m3/10 a,冰川融水量随气温增加明显.利用气候突变分析发现,气温发生突变点为1996年,1996～2004年冰川表面年平均气温比1960～1995年间高0.41℃,年冰川融水量1996～2004年比1960～1995年增加了0.41×106 m3(增加26.9%),冰川融水径流量在气候变暖背景下变化显著.

Study on Glacial Melt-water Change of Qiyi Glacier in Climate Warming of Qilian Mountain

In this paper,the temperature data from 1960 to 2004 in Jiuquan weather station were used to rebuild the streamflow of Qiyi Glacier,with a view to the significant correlation between the air temperature and glacial melt-water streamflow.The distribution and variation coefficients of annual glacial runoff were analyzed.The temperatures of Jiuquan weather station have increased by 0.24℃/10a-1 over the recent 40 years,as a result,the glacial melt-water discharge increased by 0.076×106 m3/10a-1 in the Qiyi Glacier.Analysis of climate Jump shows that,the temperature jump point of Jiuquan is at 1996,the mean surface temperature of the Qiyi Glacier during 1996-2004 increased about 0.41℃ compares to the period of 1960～1995,and the glacial runoff increased about 26.9%(0.41×106m3).