大气环流模式在黄河流域的适用性评价

本文以国际上较流行的5个大气环流模式(HadCM3、GFDL、ECHAM4、CSIRO-Mk2以及CGCM2)对黄河流域1961～1990年温度和降水的模拟结果为基础,通过与该流域同期观测值比较,分析了各大气环流模式(GCM)在黄河流域的适用性.研究结果表明:HadCM3、GFDL两个模式对黄河流域温度的模拟结果较好;ECHAM4、HadCM3两个模式对黄河流域降水的模拟结果较好.5个大气环流模式对温度的模拟明显优于对降水的模拟.总体而言,英国的HadCM3模式在黄河流域的适用性最好,可为黄河流域水文水资源、水土流失对全球气候变化响应等相关研究,提供未来气候变化情景的借鉴.

Applicability Evaluation of Global Circulation Models in the Yellow River Basin

Based on the data of average temperature and precipitation simulated by five global circulation models(HadCM3,GFDL,ECHAM4,CSIRO-Mk2 and CGCM2)in the Yellow River Basin,the study compared the simulated values with the observation for 30 years (1961-1990).The difierence between simulated values and observed values was analyzed to make a quantitative evaluation of the applicability of every GCM in the Yellow River Basin.The results indicate that HadCM3 and GFDL simulate the average temperature better than the other models;and ECHAM4 and HadCM3 simulate the average precipitation much better than the others in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that average temperature simulated by five GCMs is significantly better than the simulated value of precipitation.The comprehensive analysis show that HadCM3 GCM made in Britain is the most applicable model in the Yellow River Basin.which can provide future climate change scenarios for the study on hydrology and water resources,soil erosion and related research responding to climate change.