极大熵准则在降雨强度-历时-频率模型参数估计中的应用

根据频率与重现期的关系推导出三类常用降雨强度-历时-频率模型的无条件及条件概率分布(概率密度)函数及与模型相对应的约束。极大熵与极大似然准则产生一致估计,本文尝试基于极大熵准则建立降雨强度-历时-频率模型参数估计的优化模型,应用模拟退火算法求解该优化模型。根据比较发现,极大熵估计有时比常用的极大似然估计和最小二乘估计更精确。

Maximum Entropy Criterion Applied in Parameter Estimation of Rainfall IDF Models

In this paper,the conditional CDF(PDF)and lower bounds related to different commonly used IDF models in water resources engineering are derived based on the relationship of return period and frequency.Maximum-Entropy criterion is tried to estimate IDF model parameters.By comparison of results of different goodness-of-fit criteria,it can be found that maximum entropy criterion used for estimating IDF model parameters is more accurate than likelihood,and that maximum entropy and likelihood criteria would yield identical parameter estimation.