| 基于ARIMA模型的补远江含沙量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟荣华,傅开道,何大明,邢煜民,苏斌.基于ARIMA模型的补远江含沙量预测[J].水文,2011,31(6):48-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟荣华 傅开道 何大明 邢煜民 苏斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学亚洲国际河流中心,云南昆明,650091 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，云南省科技计划项目，云南省中青年学术技术带头人后备人才培养项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 流域输沙的估算是水资源管理中广泛面临的问题。基于时间序列自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)预测模型,分别对补远江曼安水文站1993～2008年雨季、旱季月平均含沙量资料进行建模拟合。综合AIC值、相对误差,确定模型的阶数,运用Marquardt非线性最小二乘法估计模型参数,建立ARIMA预测模型。经检验,雨季AIC=-61.046,旱季AIC=-131.785,相对误差低于20%的合格率分别为92.1%、76.9%,残差序列均为白噪声序列,表明旱季ARIMA(1,1,1)、雨季ARIMA(1,1,2)模型较为合理。应用模型对2009～2011年曼安水文站的雨季、旱季平均含沙量进行了预测,实现了河流输沙状况的短期预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源管理 ARIMA模型 含沙量预报 补远江 |
ARIMA-based Sediment Concentration Forecasting for Buyuanjiang River |
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| ZHONG Ronghua,FU Kaidao,HE Daming,XING Yumin,SU Bin.ARIMA-based Sediment Concentration Forecasting for Buyuanjiang River[J].Hydrology,2011,31(6):48-52. |
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| Authors: | ZHONG Ronghua FU Kaidao HE Daming XING Yumin SU Bin |
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| Institution: | (Asian International Rivers Center,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China) |
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| Abstract: | Estimate of sediment load is widely required in water resources management.Based on auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) forecasting models,we simulated the trends of monthly average sediment concentration at the Manan Station on the Buyuanjiang River in dry and wet seasons from 1993 to 2008.The order of the model was tested with AIC value,while relative error and the parameter of the model were estimated using Marquardt least square method for results assessment.The calculation shows that the A... |
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| Keywords: | water resources management ARIMA model sediment concentration forecast Buyuanjiang River |
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