晋江流域年径流统计特性分析与预测

在收集晋江流域石砻水文站近期最新年径流资料基础上,对该流域年径流统计特性,如自相关性、长持续性,趋势性及周期性等,利用一些较新方法进行了较为全面深入的分析,在此基础上建立了晋江流域年径流一步长期统计预测模型。结果表明,晋江流域年径流无明显的趋势性及长持续性。预测精度较高,平均相对误差可控制在20％以内,对2003特干旱年的预测效果良好。该研究对晋江流域防汛抗旱的决策有一定的参考价值。

Statistic Characteristics Analysis and Prediction for the Annual Runoff of the Jinjiang River in Fujian Province

On the basis of the collection of recent data of annual runoff and precipitation in the Jinjiang river basin in Fujian Province, the statistic characteristics of runoff, including autocorrelation, long term persistence, and statistic component (trend, period) have been deeply analyzes. A predictive statistic model is also established for the forecasting of annual runoff in the control station-Shi-long hydrologic station in the basin. The results show that there is no trend and no long term persistence, but there is periodic component for the time series of runoff in the station. The prediction relative errors for annual discharge are less than 20%. It will be useful for the decisionmaking of flood control and drought resistance in the study area.