基于生态优先的水资源承载力分源评价及应用——以河北保定平原为例

水资源是保障区域发展的重要因素,是维持生态环境的关键要素。保定平原区作为京津冀地区的重要区域,其水资源承载能力对于区域生态和社会经济发展具有重要意义。本文以生态优先为基本理念,基于不同供水来源与不同用水类型的供给与利用关系,采用定额计算和线性加权目标规划相结合的方法,对保定平原区水资源承载力进行分源评价,并与地方规划相对比,进行了水资源承载力分级。结果表明:在保证生态需水和农业灌溉用水的基础上,保定平原区在持续枯水年条件下城镇生活和工业生产2025年可提供水量为4.63×10~8m~3、水量缺口0.52×10~8m~3,2030年可提供水量为6.96×10~8m~3、水量缺口0.56×10~8m~3;持续平水年条件下,城镇生活和工业生产2025年可提供水量为5.81×10~8m~3、水量盈余0.66×10~8m~3;2030年可提供水量为8.14×10~8m~3、水量盈余0.62×10~8m~3。该项研究旨在为保定平原地区发展规划制定提供科学依据。

Ecological priority-based source-division evaluation and application on water resources carrying capacity: Take Baoding plain of Hebei Province as a case study

Water resource is an important factor to ensure regional development and a key factor to maintain ecological environment. As an important region in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the water resource carrying capacity of Baoding Plain is of great significance to regional ecology and social and economic development. Based on the basic concept of ecological priority, according to the supply and utilization relationship of different water sources and different water types, the water resource carrying capacity of Baoding Plain was evaluated separately by using the method of combination of quota calculation and linear weighted objective programming, and compared with the local planning, the water resource carrying capacity was classified. The results show that on the basis of guaranteeing ecological water and agricultural irrigation water, under conditions of persistent dry years, total available water of urban life and industrial production will be 463 million m³ in 2025, lacking of 52 million m³, and total available water will be 696 million m³ in 2030, lacking of 56 million m³. Under conditions of persistent median water years, total available water of urban life and industrial production will be 581 million m³ in 2025, surplus 66 million m³, and total available water will be 814 million m³ in 2030, surplus 62 million m³. This research can provide scientific basis for development planning in Baoding Plain.