湖北省山洪(泥石流)灾害气象条件分析及其预报研究

根据湖北省气象部门收集的1954年至2003年7月份的226个山洪(泥石流)灾害个例和同期气象资料，分析发现：(1)湖北省山洪(泥石流)灾害3～10月均有发生，6～8月最为集中．占总数84％；空间分布广而不均，鄂东南、鄂西南最多，灾害的时空分布与降雨的时空分布较一致。(2)68％的灾害发生在系统性降雨或集中降雨天气形势下，把握好系统性降雨和集中降雨的预测是有效预测山洪(泥石流)灾害的关键。(3)82．3％的灾害与当日暴雨以上强降雨密切相关。最后用点聚图方法确定了各区致灾的临界雨量，建立了灾害气象预报指标．该指标已投入试用。

RESEARCH ON THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF MOUNTAIN FLOOD(DEBRIS FLOW) DISASTERS IN HUBEI PROVINCE AND ITS PREDICTING MODELS

According to 226 examples of the mountain flood (debris flow) disasters happened from 1954 to July of 2003 and meteorological data collected by the meteorological departments in Hubei Province, it is found that: (1) the mountain flood (debris flow) disasters may happen from March to October, mainly from June to August(84% of total number); the disaters are scattered widely and unevenly in space, but mostly concentrated in the southeast and southwest, more in Jianghan Plateau, in the northeast, and the least in the northwest, which are corresponded with the temporal and spatial distributions of rainfall; (2)68% of the disasters appear with systematic or massive rainfall; (3) the disasters are closely associated with the severe rainfall events at he same day. Finally, the critical precipitation are determined, and the predicting models for the disasters are built that will be put into operational use in the coming rain season.