| 北京市生活垃圾产生量预测方法的比较分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓宇,周素霞,夏训峰,席北斗,张颖,纪丹凤,顾雨,冯雪华.北京市生活垃圾产生量预测方法的比较分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2010,21(2):68-70. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓宇 周素霞 夏训峰 席北斗 张颖 纪丹凤 顾雨 冯雪华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国环境科学研究院,北京,100012
2. 中国环境科学研究院,北京,100012;东南大学经济管理学院,南京,211189 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据北京市1991~2006年的生活垃圾产生量及其相关影响因子,运用多元线性回归法、灰色模型、BP神经网络3种预测模型进行了模拟,并预测了北京市2007年和2010年的垃圾产生量,通过绝对百分误差(MAPE)等指标比较了预测精确度。结果表明,BP神经网络综合考虑了各种因素的影响,较前两者的拟合和预测精度高。
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| 关 键 词： | 多元线性回归 GM（1 N）灰色系统 BP神经网络 城市生活垃圾 |
THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS ON MSW OUTPUT IN BEIJING |
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| LIU Xiao-yu,ZHOU Su-xia,XIA Xun-feng,XI Bei-dou,ZHANG Ying,JI Dan-feng,GU Yu,FENG Xue-hua.THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS ON MSW OUTPUT IN BEIJING[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2010,21(2):68-70. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiao-yu ZHOU Su-xia XIA Xun-feng XI Bei-dou ZHANG Ying JI Dan-feng GU Yu FENG Xue-hua |
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| Institution: | 1.China Environmental Science Research Institute,Beijing 100012,China;2.Southeast University,Economic Management College,Nanjing 211189,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to MSW output in Beijing during 1991-2006 and its related factors,MSW output in Beijing is simulated by using multiple linear regression,grey model and the BP neural network.MSW output in Beijing of 2007 and 2010 are forecasted,forecast accuracy is compared through absolute error percentage（MAPE）.Results show that the BP neural network considers the influence of various factors,so its fitting accuracy and forecast precision is higher than the former two. |
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| Keywords: | multivariate linear regression GM（1 N） gray system BP neural network municipal solid waste |
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