变化环境下城市水文学的发展与挑战——Ⅱ.城市雨洪模拟与管理

全球气候变化和快速城市化改变了城市水循环过程，加剧了城市暴雨洪涝问题。从城市雨洪模型构建的角度，回顾了降雨观测与预报技术、城市雨洪产汇流计算方法以及城市雨洪模型的发展历程，总结了各种技术的特点、适用性和局限性，指出城市雨洪模型在机理认识和数据管理方面的不足，提出了城市雨洪模型的概念性框架与基本流程。从雨洪资源化的角度，介绍了城市雨洪管理基本理念和策略，分析了城市雨洪管理的主要技术方案。阐明了城市雨洪模拟与管理的发展趋势及前景，未来应该强化高精度降雨观测和临近定量降雨预报能力，探索城市化流域的产汇流机理和响应机制，开发有效的城市雨洪模型系统，发展多源信息耦合技术，开展城市雨洪模拟预报及资源化利用研究，实现城市可持续发展以及保障城市水安全。

Development and challenges of urban hydrology in a changing environment：Ⅱ：Urban stormwater modeling and management

Cities are suffering from extremely heavy rain and urban waterlogging disaster in recent years, due to the change in the natural hydrologic processes impacted by global climate change and rapid urbanization. The development and application of precipitation observation and forecasting, calculation methods for runoff generation and flow concentration, and urban stormwater simulation techniques are reviewed in the context of hydrological processing and modeling. The features, applicability and limitations of these techniques are discussed. The shortcomings and gaps of approaches on urban stormwater modeling, such as the lack of knowledge and the data to understand the response mechanism of the rainfall-runoff processes in the urban areas, are pointed out. The conceptual framework and flowchart for urban stormwater modeling is presented. Viewing from the prospective of rainwater utilization, essential principles and strategies on the urban stormwater management are presented, and the techniques and measures are also discussed. Then, the main future development direction and challenges in urban stormwater modeling and management are highlighted. Further research into the high spatio-temporal resolution observation and forecasting of urban rainfall are required to improve storm-term rainfall prediction. The performance of urban stormwater modeling technologies remain poorly quantified, which need a multisource information-fusion-based approach to the efficient estimation of urban runoff. The mechanism also remains poorly understood, which need much more research to understand the rainfall-runoff response relationship in the urban areas. In addition, urban stormwater is now increasingly regarded as a resource. The methods of harvesting, utilization and management of urban stormwater also need to pay more attention to, which imposes a requirement to ensure that stormwater management systems are adaptable and resilient to changes.