气候变化下东北中等流域冬季径流模拟和预测

为了预测未来气候变化下冬季径流，利用寒区水文模型CRHM（Cold Region Hydrological Model platform）模拟2000—2012年和预测2025—2060年松花江二级支流依吉密河上游冬季径流流量。研究结果表明：① 根据2025—2060年际冬季径流深和径流系数变化，发现典型排放浓度增加，冬季径流序列不稳定性增大。② 根据识别突变点位置，发现典型排放浓度越高，累积冬季径流拐点增多。③ 通过相关性分析发现，同时期气候为影响冬季月径流的主要因素，冬季降水是影响冬季月径流变化的主要因素。④ 利用累积量斜率变化率比较方法发现，相对于2025—2042年，2043—2056年和2057—2060年冬季降水增长对冬季径流增长贡献率分别为39.8%和62.6%；相对于2043—2056年，2057—2060年冬季降水减少对冬季径流减少的贡献率为27.0%。

Simulation and forecast of winter runoff in medium basin of Northeast China under climate change

To forecast winter runoff under future climate change,the Cold Region Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform was applied to simulate the winter runoff volumes during 2000—2012 and forecast the winter runoff volumes during 2025—2060 of upper reach of Yijimi River,a secondary tributary of China's Songhua River. The results indicate the following. ① Based on the changes of annual winter runoff depth and runoff coefficient during 2025—2060,the instability of winter runoff series would increase with increasing representative emission concentration. ② On the basis of location identification of mutation points,the higher the representative emission concentration,the greater the inflection point of accumulated winter runoff. ③ According to the correlation analysis,the climate in the same period is the main factor affecting monthly runoff in winter,and winter precipitation is the main factor affecting the changes of winter monthly runoff. ④ By comparison of cumulant slope changes,compared with the period 2025—2042,the contribution rates of winter precipitation growth to winter runoff growth during 2043—2056 and 2057—2060 are 39.8% and 62.6%,respectively. Compared with the period 2043—2056,the contribution rate of winter precipitation reduction during 2057—2060 to winter runoff reduction is 27.0%.