全球变化下跨境水资源理论与方法研究展望

全球变化影响下，水危机位列未来10年世界风险之首，以国际河流区的跨境水纠纷及其导致的地缘战略竞争最受关注。科学调控跨境水安全，保障国家水权益，面临诸多科学与技术难题。回顾了国际河流水安全与水权益保障的研究进展，判识了存在的问题及面临的挑战。围绕创建全球变化下跨境水资源利益共享理论与方法体系研究目标，提出了需要解决的关键科学问题、技术瓶颈和创新思路；设置了主要研究目标与内容、总体方案与技术路线。这些研究，将推进国际河流水科学研究发展，提升全球变化下中国管控跨境水安全风险、保障国家水权益的科技支撑能力。

Perspective on theories and methods study of transboundary water resources under the global change

Under the global change, water crisis was identified as the most critical issue of the world crisis in the coming 10 years. The topics of most concern in the water crisis are the transboundary water dispute and its geo-cooperative competition in international rivers. Many scientific and technical problems need to be solved for transboundary water security and benefit sharing. In this paper, the research progress of water security and water benefit in international rivers were reviewed, and their problems and challenges identified. Focusing on the establishment of theories and methods for transboudary water benefit sharing adapting to the global change, the key scientific and technical problems, and the innovative approaches were proposed; the major objectives and contents, and the general scheme and technical routes for multi-discipline researches, have been set. These researches will facilitate the development of water science of international rivers, and strengthen the capacity building to governance the transboundary water risks under the global change.