长江日流量混沌变化特性研究——Ⅰ相空间嵌入滞时的确定

为了以新途径探索长江水量变化规律并在此基础上做出预测,全面而系统地研究了宜昌站日流量混沌变化特性并建立了新预测模型.重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定.分析了传统的自相关函数法和真实矢量场法确定嵌入滞时的优劣,并提出以广义相关函数合理确定嵌入滞时的方法.研究结果表明广义相关函数法是一个合理又可操作的途径.

Characteristics of daily flow variation in the Yangtze River,1,optimum determination of delay time for reconstruction of a phase space

To explore the properties of daily flow variation in the Yangtze River and its prediction by using a new approach, the issue of chaotic properities of daily flow at Yichang station has been addressed systematically and fully.Based on the obtained results,some new models have also been developed.The findings from this comprehensive exploration are divided into several parts.This paper contains the first part,in which the stress is put on optimum determination of delay time.The determination of delay time is very important for chaotic analysis.Two traditional methods(autocorrelation and real vector) are applied to this determination.In addition,a new method,named as general correlation function method,has been put forward. The results show that the general correlation function method is a reasonable and operational method for determination of delay time.