气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识

气候变化下的水资源脆弱性和适应性管理研究成为全球和国家应对气候变化和保障水资源安全重点关注的问题,也是中国可持续发展面对的重大战略问题。介绍了水资源脆弱性和适应性管理的国内外最新研究进展;针对国家重大需求和国际科学前沿问题,综述了气候变化下水资源脆弱性和适应性管理存在的问题与挑战。提出了气候变化下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理理论与方法研究以应对气候变化的无悔为准则,与社会经济可持续发展、成本效益分析、利益相关者的多信息源的分析与综合决策相结合为原则,对适应性管理与脆弱性组成的互联互动系统及其风险与不确定性进行分析的新认识。

Revisions on water resources vulnerability and adaption measures under climate change

Assessment of water resources vulnerability and development of adaption measures under climate change are among the major strategic issues for sustainable development in China. This paper reviews progress in research in this field and recommends revisions in direction and emphasis. In general, research and policy-making has so far inadequately dealt with uncertainties that exist in hydrological processes. Also, there has been a tendency for research on vulnerability assessment and adaption measures to be disjointed, while evidence suggests that water shortage that threatens social and economic development is often related to poor water management. Future research in this field would benefit by: Integration of vulnerability assessment and ecological needs with appropriate adaption measures; development of theory and models of how to respond quickly to hydrological, ecological and socio-economic change; quantifying and utilizing risk and uncertainty; adopting no regrets adaptation measures; undertaking cost-benefit analysis of options with the goal of sustainable development; and greater stakeholder involvement in information provision and decision making.