| 黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建云,王国庆,贺瑞敏,刘翠善.黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):153-158. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建云 王国庆 贺瑞敏 刘翠善 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏, 南京, 210029; |
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| 基金项目： | 中央公益性行业专项基金，现代水利科技创新项目，江苏省博士后项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 黄河中游水资源匮乏,分析水文要素变化趋势对实现水资源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。根据流域地貌特征及水文站控制情况,将黄河中游划分为3个区间,分别为:河-龙区间、龙-三区间和三-花区间,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法与线性回归方法,分析检验了各区间年径流量的历史变化趋势。采用设定情景与水文模拟相结合的途径,评估了不同区间河川径流量对气候变化的响应。根据1950-2005年资料分析,结果表明:黄河中游干流控制站实测径流量与区间径流量均具有显著的减少趋势。若气温升高1℃,年径流量将减少3.7%~6.6%;河川径流对降水变化更为敏感,若降水减少10%,河川径流量将减少17%~22%;近些年黄河中游气温升高和降水减少是河川径流减少的重要原因之一。
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| 关 键 词： | 黄河中游 水资源 降水 气温 敏感性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-06-25 |
Variation trends of runoffs in the Middle Yellow River basin and its response to climate change |
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| ZHANG Jian-yun,WANG Guo-qing,HE Rui-min,LIU Cui-shan.Variation trends of runoffs in the Middle Yellow River basin and its response to climate change[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(2):153-158. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jian-yun WANG Guo-qing HE Rui-min LIU Cui-shan |
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| Institution: | 1.Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | The Yellow River is shortage in water resources,and it's of significance to analyze variation of hydrological variables for sustainable development of water resources.According to the characters of geomorphology and distribution of key hydrometric stations,the middle reaches of the Yellow River is divided into three regions,which are the region from Hekouzhen to Longmen,the region from Longmen to Sanmenxia,and the region from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou.Historical variation trends of runoff in each region are t... |
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| Keywords: | the middle reach of the Yellow River water resources precipitation temperature sensitivity |
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