| 基于GM(1,1)模型的海区大风灰色理论预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 梁忠,张峰,苏轼鹏.基于GM(1,1)模型的海区大风灰色理论预测[J].海洋技术,2008,27(1):92-95. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 梁忠 张峰 苏轼鹏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 海军大连舰艇学院,辽宁,大连,116018 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据灰色理论方法对影响东海某海区大风建立了GM(1,1)模型,并利用海区8~10月观测资料进行了对比分析,研究发现,该模型物理概念清晰,对9~10月海区大风预测效果较好,对海区灾害性大风长期预报具有一定的指导意义。
|
| 关 键 词： | 大风日 灰色理论 气候预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-2029(2008)01-0092-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年8月15日 |
Grey Theory Forecast of the Sea Area Gale Based on GM(1,1) Model |
| |
| LIANG Zhong,ZHANG Feng,SU Shi-pen.Grey Theory Forecast of the Sea Area Gale Based on GM(1,1) Model[J].Ocean Technology,2008,27(1):92-95. |
| |
| Authors: | LIANG Zhong ZHANG Feng SU Shi-pen |
| |
| Abstract: | GM(1,1) model was established in this paper to affect some sea area gale in the East China Sea according to the grey theory method,compared with the observed data from August to October,this model,with clear conception,successes to forecast the gale date in the East China Sea between September to October.Obviously, it's very helpful utilizing this method to wind climate forecasting. |
| |
| Keywords: | gale date grey theory GM(1 1) model climate forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
