Model estimates for the mean gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere under the conditions of the present-day climate and its changes expected in the 21st century

Annual mean fluxes of CO₂ and oxygen across the sea surface are estimated with the use of numerical modeling for several regions located in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio zones. The present-day climatic conditions and the climatic conditions expected in the middle and at the end of the 21st century are considered. Specific features of gas exchange under a strong wind that are associated with gas exchange by bubbles and with changes in the air-water difference of the gas concentrations were taken into account in the calculations. The estimates obtained differ substantially from the results based on the traditional approach, which disregards the above features. A considerable increase in the absorption of CO₂ by the ocean, which is mainly caused by the continuing increase in the CO₂ concentration in the air during its small changes in the ocean, is expected in the 21st century. At the same time, no trends are revealed in the annual mean fluxes of oxygen across the ocean surface. The conclusion is made that, in calculations of CO₂ absorption by the world ocean, it is necessary to take into account both specific features of gas transfer under a strong wind and an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂.