象山港围隔生态系水质模型研究

在美国环保局开发的WASP(the water quality analysis simulation program,水质分析模拟程序)中的概念模型基础上,运用系统动力学软件Stella9.0.2建立了适用于海洋围隔生态系水质动力学模型.模型包括浮游植物、磷循环、氮循环、碳生化需氧量-溶解氧4个模块,涉及叶绿素a、有机磷、无机磷、有机氮、氨氮、硝酸-亚硝酸盐氮、生化需氧量、溶解氧8个水质指标.利用2010年10月初象山港围隔生态实验数据进行了模型验证和参数率定工作,成功模拟了不同水温条件下围隔水质情况,并确定了30余个模型参数,展现了系统动力学模拟的优势,为揭示象山港海域生态系统的动力学机制,模拟和预测他的变化提供科学依据.

Study on the water quality model of the mesocosm ecosystem in the Xiangshan Bay

Based on the conceptions of the water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) developed by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), a water quality dynamic model of ocean mesocosm ecosystem was established using system dynamic software-Stella9.0.2. The model consists of four modules: Phytoplankton, Phosphorus Cycle, Nitrogen Cycle and Carbonaceous Biochemical Oxygen Demand-Dissolved Oxygen Cycle, and eight variables including Chlorophyll a, Organic phosphorus, Inorganic phosphorus, Organic nitrogen, Ammonia, Nitrate-Nitrite nitrogen, Biochemical oxygen demand and Dissolved oxygen were involved in it. The results showed that this model could simulate the water quality variations properly in mesocosm ecosystem under different water temperature conditions, based on the site experiment data in the Xiangshan Bay in early October, 2010. Not only the logical structure but also the model parameters were feasible, and more than 30 parameters were made during the simulation. In short, the model demonstrated the advantages of the system dynamic simulation and provide scientific evidence for revealing dynamic mechanism, simulating and predicting changes of the marine ecosystems in the Xiangshan Bay.