青岛地区夏季冷锋暴雨的预报方法

用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法。以地面影响系统为主要依据。对1983-2000年6-8月青岛地区的40次暴雨进行分型，分为气旋，台风和冷锋三种类型，根据预报经验，选取相应的预报因子，建立0-1权重回归方程，预报青岛地区未来24h的暴雨，对于冷锋类暴雨，本文认为来自低纬度西南低空急流是水汽，涡度的输送通道，它向暴雨区提供了暴雨所需的水汽和能量，因此把它列为起始场条件，因子选取了代表水汽，位势不稳定，能量的物理因子。统计得出；冷锋类暴雨方程的准确率为13/14（92.9%)。用此方法对1980年6-8月进行试报。没有出现空漏报现象，效果较好。

A FORECAST METHOD OF RAINSTORM WITH COLD FRONT IN QINGDAO'S SUMMER

By the way of synoptic dynamics and statistics and on the basic of the condition of surface influence system,we classify the 40 rainstorms in Qingdao's region on in June-August from 1983 to 2000 as cyclone.typhoon and cold-front.According to the prediction experience,we choose the prediction factors and develop a 0-1 weighting regression equation to forecast the rainstorm within 24 hours in Qingdao's region in summer.For cold-frong rainstorm,the forecast accuracy is 13/14(92.9%).We used the way to forecast accurately the cold-front rainstorm of the summer in 1980.So this way is reliable.