海岸带土地利用格局演化及多情景开发模拟¬——以宁波市为例

海岸带土地在高强度开发下变化显著，明确其演化规律和驱动因子，为优化土地利用结构和合理利用海岸带资源提供重要依据。基于1990－2020年7期土地利用数据，利用土地利用强度指数、地理探测器模型等方法，分析宁波市海岸带土地利用格局演变特征及驱动因子；同时利用CA-Markov模型对2025年和2030年宁波市海岸带土地利用格局进行模拟。结果表明：（1）宁波市海岸带土地利用类型主要为林地和耕地，土地利用格局演化明显，其中耕地面积不断减少，林地、草地、水域和未利用地面积发生小幅度动荡，建设用地面积快速增长。（2）宁波市海岸带土地利用强度不断增加，研究区北部增长趋势明显，而南部增长速度缓慢。（3）地形和坡度是影响宁波市海岸带土地利用变化的主要自然因素，但影响程度不断减弱；GDP密度和人口密度是主要社会经济影响因素，影响强度逐渐增强；因子间交互作用类型主要为双因子增强和非线性增强，社会经济因子与自然因素中的海拔和坡度交互作用最为强烈。（4）未来宁波市海岸带土地利用变化剧烈区域将集中于杭州湾南岸、象山县东北部和宁海县南部，生态保护情景能最大程度保持土地利用结构稳定，有效缓解人地矛盾。

Simulation of land use pattern and protective development in county coastal zone: A case study of Ningbo

Coastal has significant land use changes under the background of high-intensity development. Clarifying the evolution laws and driving factors of land use can provide important basis for optimizing land use structure and rational utilization of coastal resources. Based on 7 periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020, land use transfer analysis, land use intensity index, geographic detector model and other methods were used to systematically analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of land use pattern in Ningbo coastal. At the same time, CA-Markov model is used to simulate the land use pattern of Ningbo coastal in 2025 and 2030. The results indicate that: (1) The main types of land use in the coastal of Ningbo are forest and farmland, and the pattern of land use evolution is obvious, in which the area of farmland is decreasing continuously, the area of forest, grassland, water and unused land has a small fluctuation, the area of construction land has increased rapidly. The area of forest, grassland, water area, and unused land fluctuates slightly, and the area of construction land increases rapidly. (2) The intensity of land use in the coastal of Ningbo continues to increase, with a clear growth trend in the northern part of the study area, while the growth rate in the southern part is slow. (3) Terrain and slope are the main natural factors affecting land use changes in the coastal of Ningbo, but the degree of influence is constantly weakening; Density of GDP and population are the main socio-economic influencing factors, and their impact intensity is gradually increasing; The main types of interaction between factors are dual factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement, with the strongest interaction between socio-economic factors and natural factors such as altitude and slope. (4) In the future, the areas with severe land use changes in the coastal of Ningbo will be concentrated on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay, the northeast of Xiangshan County and the south of Ninghai County. The ecological protection scenario can maximize the stability of land use structure and effectively alleviate the conflict between people and land.