基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害评估与管理

在全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,带来的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害评估对于海洋经济建设、资源开发和工程建设具有重要的现实意义。文章首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出了处理不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型实现了海洋灾害的风险评估,具有一定的科学性和可行性。

Marine Disaster Assessment and Management Based on Weighted Bayesian Network

Under the global climate change,the massive,unpredictable and disaster chain effect of marine disasters are becoming more and more prominent,and the losses have increased year by year.Carrying out marine disaster assessment has important practical significance for marine economic construction,resource development and project construction.Firstly,this paper analyzed the uncertainties of marine disaster risk based on risk theory and constructed the disaster assessment index system.Then,a Bayesian network for uncertain disaster assessment was proposed based on the Bayesian Network model,and a weighted Bayesian network assessment model was constructed based on subjective and objective weights.Finally,the assessment of marine disaster risk in coastal areas of China was carried out.Experiments showed that the evaluation model effectively achieved the risk assessment of marine disasters and had practical operability.