气候变化背景下北极航线综合评估模型研究

在全球持续变暖的影响下,北极部分地区夏季出现无冰期,北极航线具有更短的航运距离和相对稳定的地缘政治人文环境。文章从气候变化角度出发,构建包含航行环境模块、航迹规划模块和航线经济效益模块在内的综合评估模型,评估北极地区海冰、风、浪、流等气象水文地理要素对船舶航速的影响,确定北极地区的可航行天数;在此基础上,利用A-Star算法寻找北极航线的最优路径,并分析该路径上的航运经济效益;采用该评估模型对比在RCP4.5情景下2050年船舶往返欧亚大陆之间经东北航线与经苏伊士运河航线的经济效益,结果表明,苏伊士运河航线的经济效益更高,北极航线可作为替补航线。

Integrated Assessment Model of Arctic Routes with Climate Change

With the impact of global warming, parts of the Arctic region become ice free in summer. Comparing to the traditional sailing routes, the Arctic routes have shorter distance, more relatively stable geopolitical environment, which have stimulated people to explore the Arctic routes enthusiastically. This paper, from the perspective of climate change, built an integrated assessment model which contains navigation environment module, route planning module and economic profits module to assess the impact of meteorological and hydrological features such as the Arctic sea ice, wind, wave, flow and depth etc. on the sailing speed, to count the number of days that ships can navigate at the north pole. In the model, an A-Star algorithm was used to find the optimal path of Arctic routes and the economic profits of sailing on the Arctic routes had been calculated. The proposed model and algorithm was used to simulate an existing scenario (RCP4.5). The results showed that in the year of 2050, the economic benefits of the route through the Suez Canal will be higher, and the Arctic route can be used as a substitute route.