基于水温因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群剩余产量模型研究

水温是影响太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群生长、繁殖、补充的重要因素之一。根据2004–2015年太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业数据和其栖息地环境数据，包括1月产卵场(28°～35°N，125°～130°E)和9月索饵场(31°～38°N，128°～132°E)海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature，SST)，建立了基于SST因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群体的剩余产量模型，分析SST对太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群资源量的影响，对该模型的各项指标进行验证，发现该模型的预测精度较高。结果表明:太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群当年的资源量及渔获量主要受索饵场SST影响，而产卵场SST对其当年渔获量影响不显著。由此建议在今后对产卵场SST因子是否对次年的渔获量及资源量产生影响进行研究，同时渔业管理部门也应根据每年海洋环境状况确定其最大可持续产量，并实时调整管理方案。

Study on residual yield model of winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus based on water temperature factors

Water temperature is one of the important factors affecting the growth, reproduction and supplement of the winter fishes of Todarodes in the Pacific. According to the fishery data of the Pacific winter Todarodes from 2004 to 2015 and its habitat environment data, including the January spawning ground (28°–35°N, 125°–130°E) and the September feeding ground (31°–38°N, 128°–132°E) sea surface temperature (SST), a surplus production model based on SST factor was established to analyze the effect of SST on the resources of the winter migrating fish population of the North Pacific Todarodes. By verifying the indicators of the model of the surplus production model, this study find that the model has higher prediction accuracy. The results show that the resources and catches of the winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus are mainly affected by the SST of the feeding ground, but the spawning ground SST has no significant effect on its catch in the current year. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the research on whether the SST factor of the spawning ground may affect the catch and resources of the next year, and the fishery management department should also determine its maximum sustainable yield according to the state of the marine environment every year, and the management plan should be adjusted in real time.